Hindsight Bias

Time for Reflection

Remember

those "I told you so" and "I knew it all along" moments when you played Nostradamus (A famous French astrologer and physician of the 16th century who became very popular for his various prophecies) but only after the event had already occurred

(the times) when you thought that the predictor in you knew the outcome of a particular event all along but you disclosed it only after the occurrence of the event

watching that thrilling movie or reading that book where after the climax got disclosed, you believed you already knew the end / finish of the movie/ book 

What the above highlights is the presence of overestimation and overconfidence in self and that is quite indicative of  a bias referred to as "Hindsight Bias".

Definition and Background

Hindsight Bias refers to the "tendency people have to overestimate their ability to have predicted an outcome correctly that could not have been possible predicted". Once an outcome of an unforeseen event has come, people tend to believe the event as predictable, despite having no objective basis for

predicting.

The phenomenon was first described and studied in 1970s by psychologists while investigating the errors in human decision making. The research on Hindsight Bias started with Fischhoff (1975). During the late 70s, Paul Slovic and Baruch Fischhoff began studying how scientific results and historical events seemed so predictable to people when, in fact, they had no idea about them.   

Why Does Hindsight Bias Occur ?

According to one theory, Hindsight Bias is a natural coping mechanism that prevents us from facing embarrassment and disappointment. 

Another theory says that the bias is hardwired in out system

Also, the actual outcomes are easier to comprehend and remember than the many which did not materialise.

 Indicators/ Symptoms of  Hindsight Bias 

• Memory Distortion which refers to various memory errors about remembering an earlier opinion, judgement or prediction  
• Distorting information by fixating on the final outcome
• Holding strong belief in the inevitability of the event ("It had to happen")
• Applying Ego-boosting strategies at having predicting the outcome correctlty
• Building False assumption/ belief about having great intuitive abilities   
• Overestimating the accuracy of our own prediction

Impact of Hindsight Bias

The bias impacts us negatively in many ways. Some of them are as below

• Makes us less accountable for our decisions 
• Builds over-confidence in us which affects our ability to make decisions
• Prevents us from learning through our experience 
• Builds a tendency of criticising the decision-making ability of others
• Inculcates high risk-taking ability

Real-Life examples of Hindsight Bias

Research in Hindsight Bias provides ample of empirical evidence about the bias's existence in many areas of our life such as Sports, Politics, Education, Military, Workplace and Healthcare.  

Overcoming/ Addressing Hindsight Bias

• Reminding ourself that past may not always determine future and we are not fully equipped to predict an outcome accurately all the time 
• Keeping a journal to record our prediction so as to help us do a comparison of our prediction once an event has occurred. This will aid in reflection and help with gaining insight to refine decision-making skill 
• Base decision/ predication on data analysis and not solely on intuition or gut feeling
• Consider alternative outcomes to dig deep into your approach to making decisions/ predictions
• Analyse the outcome with your previous prediction (before event occurrence) and this will help develop a framework/ strategy for future predictions. 

Things may soon "crumble and fall" if your live with the attitude of "i know it all" !