Optimism Bias

Optimism Bias

Time for Reflection

Have you ever

• been consumed by that "it can't happen to me" feeling ?
• felt totally immune to everything negative ? 
• had a feeling of invulnerability ?
• thought that you can't be a victim of a layoff, can't suffer from any type of serious illness, can't meet with any mishap, you will get that coveted promotion or award above others, and similar ones that gives you the feeling of being better than you peers   

If you have ever been affected by any of the above, then that's a clear indication that Optimism Bias is at play.

Definition and Background

Optimism Bias refers to the belief that our chances of experiencing negative events in life are lower and our chances of experiencing positive events in life are higher than those of our peers. This belief suggests that we are immune to any ill-happening in life and less likely to suffer from any misfortune and more likely to attain success than what reality would suggest.

Misfortune is a part of our day-to-day living and no one is spared by it. Living in this highly dynamic VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex , Ambiguous) and assuming yourself to be immune to anything negative in the environment is but living in an illusion. This illusion is what keeps us away from the reality.

Optimism Bias occurs for both positive events and negative events, though the bias is stronger for negative events. About 80% of people across all age groups and gender, suffer from Optimism Bias.

The "Optimism Bias" phenomenon was initially described by Weinstein (1980). In a study conducted by Weinstein, 100 college students compared their own chances of experiencing 45 different health-and life-threatening problem with the chances of their peers. They showed a significant optimism bias for 34 of these hazards, considering their own chances to be below average.

For negative events, majority of the college students believed that they have a lower tendency than other students, whereas in case of positive events, majority of the college students felt they have a higher tendency than other students.

Tali Sharot, Professor, University College, London has worked extensively in the area of Optimism (Bias) and also authored book on the subject. Her work on Optimism grew out of a keen interest in the positive side of human nature and that's what prompted her to survey and interview people about their memory of 9/ 11 . Few of her findings about Optimism Bias are as below:

• We are more optimistic than realistic
• Collectively, we may grow pessimistic but privately, we are still optimistic
• Optimism runs across all cultures, irrespective of any race, religion or socio-economic bracket
• Overly positive assumptions can lead to disastrous miscalculations
• Optimism bias protects us and inspires us
• Optimism may be hardwired by evolution into the human brain

During her TED talk on Optimism Bias, Talia Sharot calls Optimism Bias as "cognitive illusion" and also as long as we are aware of our own optimism bias, we can protect our actions from its harms.

The TED talk of Talia Sharot can be viewed at the following link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQ6JJjyYHbk

Why/ How Does Optimism Bias occur ?

The Optimism Bias occurs because people tend to overestimate the probability of positive events and underestimate the probability of negative events happening to them in the future.

Optimism starts with one of the most potent ability humans have, which is the "mental time travel". This ability is crucial to our survival and enables us to move through time and space in our mind. The "mental time travel" helps us to plan ahead by setting goals, drawing then big picture, anticipating problems, and related things.

The four factors that cause a person to be optimistically biased are

• their desired end state - the goals people want and the outcomes they wish to see

• their cognitive mechanisms - mental processes that guide judgements and decision-making

• the information they have about themselves versus others - people have more information about their own risks compared to the risks faced by others and this lack of relevant information about others results in drawing wrong conclusions and making erroneous judgements 

• overall mood - person in a sad mood (anger, frustration, etc.) tend to exhibit a low tendency towards optimism bias whereas person in a happy mood tends to display a high tendency towards optimism bias

Impact of Optimism Bias

Talia Sharot highlights that being optimistic leads to success and health benefits, thereby reducing anxiety and stress. She gives three reasons about why it's good to be an optimist

• Whatever happens, whether you succeed or fail, people with high expectations always feel better
• Regardless of the outcome, the pure act of anticipation makes us happy
• Optimism changes objective reality.

Few other key positive impacts of Optimism Bias are 

• enhanced well being
• enhanced self-belief
• anticipating goodness

Few of the key negative impacts of Optimism Bias

• underestimation of risks
• leads to poor decision making
• engaging in risky behavior
• making poor choices
• illusion of being in control
• reflecting little on past decisions
• enhanced health risk due to a tendency to skip necessary tests, checkups, etc

Overcome/ Addressing Optimism Bias

• Experiencing events in real reduces optimism bias 
• Building objectivity while doing comparisons which means thinking beyond the general stereotypes
• Being a skeptic of our own ideas and opinions to avoid overconfidence and over-estimation
• Gathering proper and requisite information and relying on a fact-driven approach while taking decisions 
• Self-Analysis on different aspects of our life indicates the composite nature of our personality 
• SWOT helps provide insight into one's "weaknesses" and thereby a realisation that everything is not positive always
• Engaging in group/ team tasks builds insights about other person's capability and helps be more realistic in our approach
• Developing EI (Emotional Intelligence) skills helps with better self-awareness and others' awareness too.

A yin-yang belief prepares us better for any future eventuality !