Hindsight Bias

Time for Reflection

Remember

those "I told you so" and "I knew it all along" moments when you played Nostradamus (A famous French astrologer and physician of the 16th century who became very popular for his various prophecies) but only after the event had already occurred

(the times) when you thought that the predictor in you knew the outcome of a particular event all along but you disclosed it only after the occurrence of the event

watching that thrilling movie or reading that book where after the climax got disclosed, you believed you already knew the end / finish of the movie/ book 

What the above highlights is the presence of overestimation and overconfidence in self and that is quite indicative of  a bias referred to as "Hindsight Bias".

Definition and Background

Hindsight Bias refers to the "tendency people have to overestimate their ability to have predicted an outcome correctly that could not have been possible predicted". Once an outcome of an unforeseen event has come, people tend to believe the event as predictable, despite having no objective basis for

predicting.

The phenomenon was first described and studied in 1970s by psychologists while investigating the errors in human decision making. The research on Hindsight Bias started with Fischhoff (1975). During the late 70s, Paul Slovic and Baruch Fischhoff began studying how scientific results and historical events seemed so predictable to people when, in fact, they had no idea about them.   

Why Does Hindsight Bias Occur ?

According to one theory, Hindsight Bias is a natural coping mechanism that prevents us from facing embarrassment and disappointment. 

Another theory says that the bias is hardwired in out system

Also, the actual outcomes are easier to comprehend and remember than the many which did not materialise.

 Indicators/ Symptoms of  Hindsight Bias 

• Memory Distortion which refers to various memory errors about remembering an earlier opinion, judgement or prediction  
• Distorting information by fixating on the final outcome
• Holding strong belief in the inevitability of the event ("It had to happen")
• Applying Ego-boosting strategies at having predicting the outcome correctlty
• Building False assumption/ belief about having great intuitive abilities   
• Overestimating the accuracy of our own prediction

Impact of Hindsight Bias

The bias impacts us negatively in many ways. Some of them are as below

• Makes us less accountable for our decisions 
• Builds over-confidence in us which affects our ability to make decisions
• Prevents us from learning through our experience 
• Builds a tendency of criticising the decision-making ability of others
• Inculcates high risk-taking ability

Real-Life examples of Hindsight Bias

Research in Hindsight Bias provides ample of empirical evidence about the bias's existence in many areas of our life such as Sports, Politics, Education, Military, Workplace and Healthcare.  

Overcoming/ Addressing Hindsight Bias

• Reminding ourself that past may not always determine future and we are not fully equipped to predict an outcome accurately all the time 
• Keeping a journal to record our prediction so as to help us do a comparison of our prediction once an event has occurred. This will aid in reflection and help with gaining insight to refine decision-making skill 
• Base decision/ predication on data analysis and not solely on intuition or gut feeling
• Consider alternative outcomes to dig deep into your approach to making decisions/ predictions
• Analyse the outcome with your previous prediction (before event occurrence) and this will help develop a framework/ strategy for future predictions. 

Things may soon "crumble and fall" if your live with the attitude of "i know it all" !

Groupthink Bias

Time For Reflection

Remember those moments of internal disagreement with your friends, family, colleagues, boss during some important discussion/ brainstorming/ team meeting/ project presentation, when you begged to differ but still chose to remain silent, simply to appear aligned with the rest of them ?

Well, such a behaviour is quite common, where inspite of being a (rational) contrarian and fully  aware of the negative consequences/ repercussions of an irrational choice or decision, we still tend to approve of that choice or decision (by conforming to it) when taken in a group setting.

This type of behaviour is indicative of the existence of a bias known as "Groupthink".

Definition and Background

The word "Groupthink" was coined by William H. Whyte in 1952 in an article in Fortune Magazine.

Irving Janis, a social psychologist from Yale University is credited with studying the bias. He addressed it in his book in 1972.  As per Janis, Groupthink is defined as "a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive group, and when the members' striving for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action".

Decoding the definition further, Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon in which our need to conform with the group outdoes our need to act rationally and we tend to go with the groups' decision.

Why Does Groupthink Bias occur ?

There are many reasons for Groupthink to occur. Few of the reasons are

At group level, the reasons could be

• presence of an overbearing group leader
• internal/ external pressures on the group to take good and faster decision

At an individual's level, the reasons could be 

• strong desire to maintain the cohesiveness of the group
• intent to ensure harmony within the group
• to avoid playing the odd one out and being an outcast
• strong belief in the rules and morality of the group
• save time in decision making by avoiding voicing opinion, suggestion, idea, etc.
• not fully knowledgeable about the topic of discussion and therefore unsure about the rationality of one's own choice/ decision 

Indicators of Groupthink Bias

At the outset, the unanimity in decision making is the best indicator of Groupthink.

Further, Janis has identified eight different symptoms (indicators) of  Groupthink and they are as mentioned below:

• Illusion of invulnerability - complacency kicks in within the group leading to an attitude of over optimism and risk-taking. As a result of their earlier successes and great bonding within the group, the group starts to feel insulated from any dire consequence irrespective of the choice they make or the decision they take.

• Belief in inherent morality of the group - Because of the presence of extreme cohesiveness within the group, a false sense of belief about being morally correct always, creeps in which further leads to an illusion of rational decision-making.  

• Collective Rationalization - the false sense of self-belief prompts the group to overlook any warning signals whatsoever and this leads the group to never questions their existing assumptions or beliefs.

• Out-Group Stereotypes - The group members who do not share the same beliefs, ideas and opinions of the "in-group" are stereotyped as "out-group", considered to be outside the group

• Self-Censorship - Members who have any sort of fear or phobia withhold sharing their views, ideas or counter-arguments

• Illusion of Unanimity - Even when members prefer to remain silent instead of sharing their POV (point of view), this silence is construed as their acceptance of the group's decision

• Direct Pressure on Dissenters - The member who don't agree with the group's views are coerced and ultimately compelled to agree to the group's views.

• Self-Appointed "Mindguards" - There are members of the group who take up the task of filtering information so that no contradictory views and opinions reach the group 

Impact of Grouthink Bias

The key negative impacts of the bias are 

• Irrational decision-making in the absence of multiple perspective 
• Compromise on freedom of Individual thinking and expression 
• Operating in comfort zone
• No new perspective or POV (Point of View) encouraged 
• Adversely affects the morale and confidence of members who hold contrary views which further leads to dissatisfaction, frustration and stress
• Create internal friction as the members who hold a differing view may come together and create a mini-group within
• The group becomes overly obsessive and protective about their views and opinion which leads to insulation from others outside the group. This further impacts the group's intent and ability to collaborate 
• Absence of creative thought process

The key positive impacts 

• Decisions tend to get taken faster 
• The group never falters on the deadlines
• Strong cohesiveness which leads to lot of trust among group members

Real-life Examples of Groupthink

Human history is replete with many incidents that highlight the presence of Groupthink. Some of the popular ones are as mentioned below

• Pearl Harbour attack, 1941 - Inspite of intercepting warning messages related to Japan planning to attack, the U.S. army did not pay any heed to the signs and signals. The U.S. soldiers and the authority at Pearl Harbour engaged in groupthink. This resulted in faulty decision making by ignoring the evidence of imminent danger under the assumption that Japan won't attack because ultimately they would get defeated by U.S. army 

• Bay of Pig Invasion - In 1961, about 1500 exiled Cubans, trained and financed by CIA attempted an invasion of Cuba from sea in the Bay of Pigs to overthrow Fidel Castro. The attempt was a complete fiasco. It is believed that U.S. President Kennedy gave a go-ahead to the mission as a result of groupthink 

• Collapse of Swissair, 2001 - The collapse of Swissair a.k.a The Flying Bank, as it was fondly called, is attributed to 2 key symptoms - 1. Illusion of  invulnerability and 2. Belief in inherent morality of the group

• Collapse of Nokia and Blackberry as phone giants - Both Nokia and Blackberry were phone giants in their own segment but presence of symptoms like illusion of invulnerability, belief in inherent morality of the group and collective rationalization led to their fall.

Overcoming/ Addressing Groupthink Bias

Exploring objectives, alternatives and encouraging ideas hold the key to addressing the Groupthink Bias. Some of the ways it could be achieved are as mentioned below:

• Encourage discussion and debating within the group 
• Implement multi-perspective approach to decision-making/ problem solving through tools like "Devil's Advocate" and "Six Thinking Hats". These tools can bring about critical evaluation aspect in decision making
• Conformity could be outdone by inviting members first to share their views and opinions prior to the sharing of views/ opinions by the leader 
• To invite an impartial opinion, every group member should discuss the group's ideas with someone trustworthy outside the group 
• Leader should be absent from many meetings to avoid influencing the decision-making by group members
• Experts from outside be invited to ensure an impartial assessment of the discussion during meetings.
• Encourage creative and critical thinking in the group
• Creating mini-groups during decision making helps capture all the relevant viewpoints

Inclusivity always pays rich dividends !

Fading Affect Bias

Fading Affect Bias

Reflection

Let's ponder a bit on the below :

Between the "pleasant" and "unpleasant" significant events from your life, which one are you able to feel more of whenever remembered/ recalled ? 

From a "not-so-pleasant" significant event that occured in your life which could be something like a long-awaited vacation, a job/ business opportunity missed, an argument/ interaction that had life impacting implications, or any other significant event from life, again, what are you able to feel more/ most whenever remembered/ recalled ? 

Well, if you have never given the above a thought, then most likely your first guess would be that you would recall/ remember more of the "unhappy memories" rather than the "happy memories" but to your surprise, the results from the various studies and research in the area proves out to be contrary, which means it's the "happy memories" that we remember/ recall more of !

Well, the above discussion is an indication of a bias known as "Fading Affect". Let's explore it further 

Definition and Background

The definition of the Fading Affect Bias goes like this - "The intensity of affect (feelings) associated with negative memories fades faster than the affect (feelings) associated with positive memories." Elaborating it further - the affect prompted by autobiographical event recall typically decreases in intensity as time from the original event increases. But, the extent to which the intensity fades is different for positive events and negative events. The intensity of the emotions felt during event recall as compared to event occurence, tends to fade faster for negative events than for the positive events. This differential fading of affect over time between negative and positive event is referred to as the "Fading Affect Bias" (FAB).  

So, between the time of the actual happening of the event and its recall, the memories start fading for both the negative and positive event but when it comes to feelings associated with these events/ memories, then we see a difference in fading. The feelings associated with negative memories tend to fade faster than the feelings associated with positive memories. 

(Autobiographical Event/ Memory - Simply defining, any significant event that makes our personal history or timeline is an autobiographical event and any memory related to that is termed as autobiographical memory). 

The earliest reference to this bias (Fading Affect Bias) is of Cason (1932) whose data suggested that emotions prompted by positive event maintained more of their intensity across time compared to emotions prompted by negative event.

The "modern era" of FAB research is attributed to Walker et al. (1997) whose key findings were that humans may become selective in their memory of the event and certain memory may fade off but the emotions related to the event remains intact.

Further research on FAB is attributed to Ritchie et al. (2009) whose study identified four possible trends pertaining to memory - Fixed Affect, Fading Affect, Flourishing Affect and Flexible Affect. The study revealed that Fading Affect was more prominent (51%) as compared with the other three when it came to negative occurences, which means that Fading Affect came into play during memories related to negative events.  

Why Does Fading Affect Bias (FAB) occur ?

• Humans are always motivated to view their lives in a positive light 

• Recalling of positive events is generally stronger than that of negative events and emotional response prompted by positive memories often tend to be stronger than the emotional response prompted by negative memories. 

• Evidence also highlight that over time, we may tend to start perceiving even the negative events in a more positive way.

• Humans are always seeking happiness 

   

Benefits of Fading Affect Bias (FAB)

FAB impacts us positively in many ways such as 

• Maintaining a positive outlook towards life 

• Building a healthy self-awareness and self-esteem 

• Exhibiting good Coping Skills to deal with new experiences

• Developing attitude of seeing the best in any situation. 

More About Fading Affect Bias(FAB)

• Not every person may exhibit FAB. People suffering from dysphoria (mild depression) may perceive their lives to be more negative than the lives of others. In the case of people having dysphoria, the memory is less detailed.

• emotions prompted by event memories are not always the same as the emotions prompted by the actual event 

• memories of the event are forgotten whereas the accompanying emotions persist

Seeking the silver lining in every cloud !

Egocentric Bias

Egocentric Bias

Reflection Time

Well, Aren't we all fond of listening about "self (me, myself)" and don't we all enjoy being the center of attraction or attention always?

I am sure the answer to the above is an emphatic "YES". 

Each one of us, to some extent, is a bit of narcissist, whether we accept it or not, whether we like it or not and it's not going to take much time and effort to recall an instance/ few instances 

• when you felt your contribution in the collaborative activity was much more than anyone's else

• when you thought that your POV (Point of View) could withstand the test of time and was the only fool proof approach/ method

• when you felt that your feelings and behaviour was as apparent to everyone else as to you.

• when you felt obsessed with your opinion/ advice and couldn't fathom existence of any contrary opinion and advice.

plus numerous other instances when you felt/ thought that you were the cynosure of all eyes and that every discussion happening around was about "you".

The above pointers are a clear testimony of our inherent desire to feel "special" and this is exactly what makes up the bias known as "Egocentric Bias".

Definition and Background

Simply put, "Egocentric Bias" is the tendency to rely too heavily on one'e own perspective/ POV (point of view) when examining or remembering events in our life. In this bias, we tend to develop an inflated sense about ourself and suffer from a constant need to satisfy our own ego.

The term "Egocentric Bias" was coined in 1980 by Anthony Greenwald, a psychologist at Ohio State University. He described it as a "phenomenon in which people skew their beliefs so that what they recall from their memory or what they initially understood is different than what actually occured".

Indicators of  Egocentric Bias

Few of the key indicators are 

• when we start experiencing life through a "self-centered" filter and start assuming that every discussion happening around is about me and that people are paying as much attention to "me" as i am paying to "myself"

• when we start projecting our beliefs, desires, thoughts and emotions onto other people, especially those who are close to us

• when we start developing a "attention grabbing" or "credit grabbing" tendency where we don't leave any opportunity to exaggerate our contribution to something and start putting ourself in the front as the most "deserving" person

• when we start seeing ourself as target of other's action, which is not the reality though

Why/ How does Egocentric Bias occurs ?

Studies show that it's far easier for people to remember information is it has reference to them and that's precisely why we tend to recall information that has reference of  "me" or "myself". A case in point is "episodic memory" which we are able to recall with ease because of its autobiographical characteristic. 

Egocentric Bias occurs as a result of the reality that every individual has sole access to a vast amount of information about themselves which others are not aware of even and it is this vastness that impacts our perception and perspective (views and opinions) on various issues, situations and experiences. 

So, "EGO" sits pretty much at the center of the egocentric bias and plays a guiding role during memory access and recall.

Impact of Egocentric Bias

Egocentric bias influences the way we process and remember information and adversely impacts our personality in many ways, both personally and professionally. Whether its about demonstrating good leadership, collaboration or  coaching/ mentoring others, egocentric bias has a real impact on these. 

Some of the ways it impacts us are mentioned below:

• leads to "memory distortion", a neurological phenomenon of making events larger than life in our mind, in our bid to feed our ego.
• blurs the gap between reality and illusion
• creates "illusion of control" over events in our life
• hinders our ability to empathise 
• develops in us a tendency to undermine others' POV (point of view) or their contribution to the task 
• becomes difficult for them to develop a multi-perspective view to the situation which leads to poor decision making 
• mental health issues that may result from exaggeration or undermining

Overcoming/ Addressing Egocentric Bias

• More self-awareness - Regular SWOT analysis to help us gain insight into our weaknesses also, thereby establishing the fact that there's always a scope for improvement in some areas of our personality  

• Developing "Perspective-Taking", maybe using the tools like Six Thinking Hats, Devil's Advocate, which throw open multiple POVs to choose from through a more rational approach

• Emotional Intelligence - Another way to build more self-awareness and also awareness about others. This could help with becoming a better leader and a collaborator too

• Being able to identify the "blind spots"

• Focus on networking with others and getting involved in projects involving groups/ teams, with diverse expertise/ experience. This  may generate a tendency to work collaboratively in diversity and also generate memories involving others, and not just self.

• Practicing gratitude helps become grateful to things and people outside "me/ myself". Keeping a journal could be the easiest way to do so.

Well, the timing is always right to break this illusion of  (you/ me) being the center of the Universe and come to terms with reality !

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation Bias 

Reflection Time 

Which is your preferred political party ? Which candidate would you vote for in the coming elections?

Which is your favourite car brand ?

Which brand do you always shop for ?

Which is your preferred school/ college/ university for sending your kids to ?

Which is your favourite place for vacation ?

Well, the above list can go on and on and we can keep listing our most preferred choice. 

But ever wondered, what makes a certain brand or a certain choice our preferred brand/ choice always ? - Well, the answer is that we don't let it become anything else, neither second/ third choice, nor a non-preferred choice inspite of any contrary evidence, empirical or otherwise !

This tendency of ours to hang on to our preference/ choice under any circumstance, is an indicator of presence of a bias known as "Confirmation Bias". When afflicted with this bias, we just don't let go of our affiliation to our preference/ choice.

Definition

Perhaps, the earliest definition of "Confirmation Bias" could be attributed to Sir Francis Bacon, the great English philosopher of the 16th century who stated the following:

"The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises, or else by some distinction sets aside and rejects, in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate". 

Simplifying the above for the sake of better understanding, the "confirmation bias" is our tendency to interpret and infer new information in such a manner that it aligns with our existing beliefs and dispositions. When affected with confirmation bias, we tend to filter out any new information that contradicts our existing view and only look for evidence that stand in support of our existing beliefs.

The term "confirmation bias" was coined by English psychologist Peter Cathcart Wason (1924 - 2003), who, in 1960s performed an experiment, popularly known as Wason's Rule Discovery Test,  https://bit.ly/2Udslb3,  where he challenged the subjects to identify a rule applying to a numbers specific problem/ task.The test proved that most people do not try to at all to test their hypothesis (most of the subjects established the same hypothesis) critically but rather to confirm them. Most of the subjects in the test tried solutions to prove their hypothesis and very few tried solutions to disprove their hypothesis. 

Identifying the Occurence of the Bias

A clear indication of the occurence of the bias is when we 

• start ignoring the contradictory evidence (to our existing beliefs) as exception or special case
• start seeking information that upholds our beliefs and start ignoring the information that challenges them
• start interpreting every information from our own viewpoint 

Why this Bias Occurs ?

Perhaps, few key reasons could be 

• Selective Attention - a process in which people react to certain bits of information or stimuli and not others
• Preference to remain in Comfort Zone - Challenging the existing beliefs would mean moving out of the comfort zone to gather and apply evidence to prove contrary of our existing beliefs.
• To appear as Intelligent, where the entire exercise of proving things against our existing set of beliefs could put question mark on our intelligence  

Impact of Confirmation Bias

• Perhaps the biggest impact this bias has on us is in restricting our ability to develop/ adopt multiple perspectives/ viewpoints during decision making
• limiting our ability to absorb/ process new set of information.
• the bias leaves us bound even in case of trivial, simple and unimportant tasks/ choices
• results in building/ developing a narrow-minded or a biased-view
• prevents us from looking at situations objectively

Real - Life Occurence of Confirmation Bias 

The confirmation  bias is clearly evident in areas like religion, politics, economy, healthcare, journalism and human relations. Some examples of the same are as mentioned below

• Journalism - in the era of "fake news" and "paid news", it may not come as a surprise to us as to how "confirmation bias" is being used to accentuate our existing beliefs/ choices
• Medicine - here it may occur on both sides, whether practitioner or patient
• Inter-personal relationship where every action is perceived or twisted to support our own existing expectations/ beliefs

Overcoming/ Addressing Confirmation Bias 

• Write down our existing set of beliefs and try to find disconfirming evidence
• Practice "Falsification", where we tend to find evidence against our existing hypothesis/ beliefs
• Being curious about knowing/learning opposing views to our own beliefs and listening intently to others' views  
• Avoid sticking to any one opinion and develop new and divergent opinions
• Be emotionally distant from the issue 

Always remember to give proper weightage to the information that is warranted by evidence

Blind Spot Bias

Blind Spot Bias

Recall Time

Think about the time/ situation/ scenario when you assumed you acted in a more fair and balanced manner compared to others, only to discover later that you were found wanting in being rational in your approach to the situation !

Remember the time(s) when people accused you of playing favourites whereas you thought on the contrary and assumed that others' played favourites !

In fact, there will be plenty of such instances, stored in our memories, where we tended to assume that others play irrational in their judgement and not us. In fact, all these examples are indicators of a bias known as "Blind Spot". Let's discuss about the bias in more detail

Definition 

Blind Spot is a cognitive bias where we perceive existence of cognitive biases in others and not in ourselves; a phenomenon where people are less likely to detect bias in themselves than others. In the presence of this bias, the person lives with the impression of being fair/ rational in their judgement as compared with others. 

Blind spot bias was created by Emily Pronin, a social psychologist at Princeton University and studies have revealed that everyone is affected by blind spot bias. Also, the bias is unrelated to intelligence, self-esteem and our actual ability to make unbiased judgement and take rational decisions. 

How/ Why This Bias Occurs ?

One of the key reasons for the occurence of this bias is the concept of "Introspective Illusion", which suggests that people think they have direct insight into the origins of their mental states while treating others' introspections as unreliable. Simply put, a person living with this illusion feels aware of the "how" and "why" of decision making and therefore is rational in making judgements and taking decisions. And when we talk about facts, the reality is that the act of decision making is 99.9% an unconscious process which means that many of the mental processes associated with decision making are unconscious and people do not become aware of what is affecting their choices.

Another reason stems from our desire to see ourself as a rational decision make and that's how we tend to believe that since we have direct access to our own private thoughts we will always be rational in our decision making but when it is about others, we tend to infer their thoughts in an overt manner i.e. through their behaviour and hence not sure about rationality in their decision making.

Impact of Blind Spot Bias

• People with high "blind spot" bias are more likely to ignore the advice of peers or experts and hence less likely to improvise. This bias affects judgements and behaviours to such an extent that the person is unable to accurately judge whether the advice being provided is useful or not.
• Inability to see our own bias 
• Overrate our rationality/ impartiality
• Ineffective in relating to the world and other people

Overcoming/ Addressing Blind Spot Bias

What do we do in a situation while driving, when we narrowly miss colliding with another vehicle, even though the vehicle was very much in our peripheral view but still we missed seeing it somehow ? - Well, the solution/ answer to this is pretty simple and straightforward - we go and install a blind spot mirror. 

Likewise, we need to install or develop the following to address the blind spot bias in our judgement and decision making

• First and foremost, recognising and becoming aware of the bias in ourself
• Performing SWOT to help identify weaknesses
• Building multiple perspective to the situations. Using tools like Devil's Advocate and Six Thinking Hats could help achieve the objective
• Developing Effective Listening and seek feedback from others to identify and correct gaps in our judgement and decision making
• Developing Emotional Intelligence which helps develop the ability of self-awareness

So, always be clear and aware if you wish to be fair !